What is common between research task estimation and black holes
There is no surprise that the research task estimation is the bane of IT industry - one of the worst problems, which often becomes a cause of falling through time and within budget. The most risky category of tasks are research problems when you want to explore something new, with the earlier developer've not deal. Evaluation of these tasks always fails, you just need to learn how to live with it.
Managers know that developers assessments need to be multiplied by some coefficients, someone offers root of two, someone Phi number, but it only works for the less typical or clear objectives. The research is not suitable for this level of physics and mathematics, then you need to move to more "space" level in the truest sense of the word.
We were looking at what is the factor to be multiplied by the developers for research evaluation for 10 years and, finally, this coefficient was found - it is the Oppenheimer-Volkoff limit - the upper limit for the mass of a neutron star ... or the lower limit of the mass of the black hole. In other words, it is the mass, after which the neutron star collapses into a black hole. Modern estimates the Oppenheimer-Volkoff limit as 2.5-3 solar masses. The exact value of the Oppenheimer-Volkoff limit for today is unknown to science (such constants in physics are very few) and is precisely why 2.5-3 - ideal for multiplication factor estimates research tasks, nature and complexity of which are also difficult to understand as the origin of the black holes.
Previously, I thought that the quality and regularity of deadlines failure IT experts are worse than builders, but now I know that astrophysicists are still slightly better than the builders. It has nothing to do with this article, I just really like the builders.
Here are a few obvious similarities:
Firstly, the research process, which is made by IT experts as well as the process of the collapse of neutron stars was never seen in reality. This can be considered only theoretically justified phenomenon. What happens between the time when IT specialist leaves with the words "I need a little time to search this issue" and the moment when he returns full of hope and optimism, is covered with darkness.
Secondly, in this case, it is necessary to believe to IT experts just according to their words and agree with everything they say, just as we believe astrophysicists ... actually we just have nothing to say. Expression with which you read about the "high uncertainty properties of macroscopic states degenerate baryon matter with a very high density" is completely identical to the expression of the face of IT project manager to who IT specialist explains why this task can not be done in 2-3 hours.
Well, in the end, IT project lives its own life, and it does not care from a great height on our attempts to fit it in the strict framework of Scrum, as well as our Universe does not care in what formulas astrophysicists describe the processes occurring in it.
Conclusion: multiply research task estimation to the Oppenheimer-Volkoff limit that in 50% of cases will help you not to fail deadlines and budget.
P.S. The article admitted little inaccuracy - the author proposes to multiply the number of evaluations from 2.5 to 3, but not 2.5-3 of solar weight. For reference, the sun's mass is 1.98892 × 1030 kg-degree .... in the current competition in the IT market, this is too much.
Co-founder of Ardas
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